The short earthquakes forecast

Welcome to our web-page !
[Russian version]
We offer you the earthquakes forecast, at present moment only for the area of Northern hemisphere. In a basis of our investigations and in development of the forecasts  lays the hypothesis about distinction in physical conditions generating surface (up to 70 kms) and deep (more than 70 kms) earthquakes.

Here you can read our Publications   about a used hypothesis and about developments of a method the forecast.

We predict only  surface moderate and strong earthquakes, which are the most destructive. In March, 2000 we have decided to expose the earthquakes forecasts on the Internet. It is caused by the fact that earlier (in 1997, 1998, 1999) many strong earthquakes were predicted by us, but the information about them could not reach the regions of catastrophes in time. We consider that it is necessary to help people who are living  in seismicly dangerous regions and we provide an opportunity to help them.

The geographical map of Northern hemisphere with the forecast of time (with an interval of plus/minus 13 hours), place and force of earthquake is exposed on the server. Probability of earthquakes with magnitude 4-5 is approximately 70%, increasing  up to 80 % for the earthquakes with greater magnitude.

The basic attention is given to earthquakes with magnitudes 5-6, 6-7 and more than 7 M.  The epicentral of earthquake includes the region with radius about 60 km.

Forecasts are presented daily, except for Sunday, after 12 o'clock UTC. The technology of the operating forecast enables to estimate probability of earthquakes  2 days in advance and to correct it one day in advance .

Attention ! If no earthquakes are expected, the map will be without symbol key.
[For those who are for the first time on our page]

Symbol size of earthquakes on  the forecast  map:
 
3-5 M
 о
5-6 M
 о
6-7 M
 о
> 7 M
 o
Previous forecast (correction 1 day in advance)
Forecast map (48 hours in advance)

You  can compare our forecasts to recording of earthquakes posted daily on a site EMSC http://www.emsc-csem.org/index.php?page=home or: of U.S. Geophysical Society (USGS): http:http://earthquake.usgs.gov/recenteqsww/Quakes/quakes_all.html or on the site of the Russian Academy of Science - http://www.ceme.gsras.ru

A second address which presents our forecasts of earthquakes -  the Center forecasts geophysical "Gradient" https://www.facebook.com/groups/993136724082217/?pnref=lhc
You can see the estimate of our forecasts for past month using the following line: The brief report according to quality of the forecasts of surface earthquakes for May 2001 - May, 2008.
  • There could have been less victims

    • Attention ! This is an offer for the countries in zones of seismic activity.
    [The project.]


      All the information is protected by the patent of Russian Federation
    Please send all the questions and proposals to the chief of the department: Dr. Viktor N. Bokov (    viki333@rambler.ru) or (viktor.bokov333@gmail.com)
    Last changes done  30.10.2005